The End Game

The End Game Ep 50 – Le Shrub

In this episode of The End Game, Bill and Grant are joined by the excellent “Le Shrub,” an anonymous Twitter account both of us have followed religiously for several years.

Le Shrub discusses his approach to investing and his use of social media as a feedback loop mechanism. He also shares his views on Japan’s monetary policy, the role of gold and real assets as hedges against fiscal recklessness, and the potential for a market crash after the US election.

We discuss the importance of having an outsized allocation to commodities and cash-flowing assets to protect against the risks posed by policymakers’ monetary and fiscal policies, and the significance of certain events, such as the South African elections and the recent Freddie Mac proposal, in shaping market dynamics.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 49 – Paulo Macro

Joining Bill and me for the latest episode of The End Game is fintwit superstar Paulo Macro as we pick apart the problems facing a series of central banks and try to handicap the various outcomes they face as The End Game approaches.

On the slate are the Japanese economy, the yen, the Chinese renminbi, and the outlook for gold, with Paulo suggesting that Japan may have a longer road ahead in terms of fighting external pressures and that the BoJ may be able to turn the tide on the yen in the near- to medium-term.

We also discusses the possibility of China allowing the renminbi to appreciate rather than devalue, the potential for a weaker dollar to drive the rest of the world’s economies and why Paulo thinks gold is acting more like a currency that may continue to strengthen against other fiat.

Finally, Paulo explains why he believes the trading environment is set to become more challenging and that experienced traders will need to be more selective in their strategies.

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The End Game Ep 48 – Gerard Minack

Joining Bill Fleckenstein and me once again is our favourite Aussie-based analyst, Gerard Minack, who returns to The End Game to discuss various topics including Japan’s economy and market, US fiscal and monetary policy, central bank independence, gold, and the US dollar.

Gerard shares his views on Japan, explaining that while he believes the Japanese equity market is worth being bullish about, he’s not quite as optimistic about the country’s economy. He also addresses the issue of everybody’s favourite issue – Japan’s public sector debt, which Gerard believes is often exaggerated and that the crucial figure to understand -net debt – is actually much lower.

We also zero in on the importance of wage growth in Japan and its impact on inflation before pivoting to discuss the broader global markets, where he sees a major gap between market expectations and actual economic conditions. Gerard believes the market is far too optimistic about earnings growth and that there is a risk of a correction in the near future. 

Other topics under discussion include the US dollar and the recent movements in gold and copper prices.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 47 – The Two Mikes

Returning to The End Game as we begin the year with a bang are the brains behind Simplify, The Two Mikes, Green & Taylor who take turns picking apart just about ever facet of the financial and political spectrum. From the growth of passive investing and its potential impact on the market to the importance of […]

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The End Game Ep 46 – James Aitken

Returning to The End Game is The Lord of the Dark Matter himself, James Aitken. Among the topics under discussion is the (under appreciated) potential for a normalization cycle by the Bank of Japan. James suggests the BOJ may attempt a policy rate normalization due to structural reforms and the need to revitalize the equity […]

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Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 45 – Kris Sidial

Joining us for this episode of The End Game is Kris Sidial, Co-Chief Investment Officer of The Ambrus Group, a tail-risk manager specializing in volatility strategies. Kris and his team seek to offer investors tail-risk protection without the associated ‘bleed’ in premium during times of dampened volatility so, with September fast-approaching, we thought it was a perfect time to chat with him as markets prepare to wake from their traditional summer slumbers.

Kris’ thoughts about what to expect as we move towards the back end of 2023 are incredibly interesting, with his expected scenario for the rest of this year having the potential to create quite the stir in markets lulled to sleep by the constant downward pressure on vol over recent years.

Buckle up, folks!

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Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 44 – Mike Green

Returning to the End Game for a long-overdue catch-up is the brilliant Mike Green of Simplify Asset management, who brings us up to date on the effect passive investing is having on asset markets and how they are skewing things in ways yet-to-be fully understood by the vast majority of market participants.

Mike offers his thoughts on the blunders made by the Federal Reserve, the odds that the market may hit a dangerous air pocket and the state of the US economy and does so with his customary verve.

This conversation was recorded the day before last week’s debt ceiling resolution.

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Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 43 – Steve Eisman

Bill and Grant return for a no-holds-barred conversation with the great Steve Eisman of The Eisman Group within Neuberger Berman. Steve is no stranger, thanks both to his exploits during the GFC and the stupendous portrayal OF those exploits by Steve Carell in the movie version of Michael Lewis’ wonderful book, The Big Short.

Steve explains the history of paradigm shifts and tells us why he feels we are at the point of another major change, not only in the investment landscape but also in broader society.

The recent meltdown in the mid-size banking sector comes under the microscope, as do Fed policy, lofty valuations, a likely return to a more familiar investment world, the tech reckoning and the purveyor of a certain set of ETFs focused on ‘exponential growth’ stocks.

Fun for all the family!

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 42 – Michael Kao

With the financial world in turmoil once again and The End Game seemingly under way, we welcome Michael Kao back to the podcast to share his thinking around what the recent events in the banking sector (and the response of regulators) portends for the future.

Michael explains how he views the Fed’s toolkit and what he feels they’re likely to do with the ever-decreasing options at their disposal, what this latest fiasco means for the rest of the global banking fraternity and the US dollar as well as the likely knock-on effects for China.

This is yet another fascinating step on our journey to uncover The End Game.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 41 – Mike Taylor

The latest guest to grace The End Game is Mike Taylor, manager of PINK, a healthcare ETF from the Simplify stable, the profits and fees associated with which go to the Susan Coleman Foundation for breast cancer. In a hugely spirited discussion, Mike pulls no punches as he takes apart the current landscape, assesses the […]

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 40 – Cem Karsan

On this episode of The End Game, we welcome Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors to the podcast as we take a look at the dramatic changes taking place in the world of volatility – an asset class which has been artificially dampened for many years but which is now beginning to spring back to life.

Cem is our guide as we ponder what this means and examine the constraints the inflation places upon central banks desperate to maintain a low vol environment for as long as they possibly can.

Part history lesson, part math lesson, part explainer, this conversation has so much in it for those looking to understand the new world in which we find ourselves through the prism of volatility…

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 39 – David Einhorn

The latest guest to grace The End Game series is hedge fund legend, value investor, ‘reformed’ shortseller and poker wizard, David Einhorn. In a greatly anticipated conversation, Bill and I get the chance to quiz David about his recent comments on the death of value investing, the challenges posed by investing in a bear market […]

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game

The End Game Ep 50 – Le Shrub

In this episode of The End Game, Bill and Grant are joined by the excellent “Le Shrub,” an anonymous Twitter account both of us have followed religiously for several years.

Le Shrub discusses his approach to investing and his use of social media as a feedback loop mechanism. He also shares his views on Japan’s monetary policy, the role of gold and real assets as hedges against fiscal recklessness, and the potential for a market crash after the US election.

We discuss the importance of having an outsized allocation to commodities and cash-flowing assets to protect against the risks posed by policymakers’ monetary and fiscal policies, and the significance of certain events, such as the South African elections and the recent Freddie Mac proposal, in shaping market dynamics.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 49 – Paulo Macro

Joining Bill and me for the latest episode of The End Game is fintwit superstar Paulo Macro as we pick apart the problems facing a series of central banks and try to handicap the various outcomes they face as The End Game approaches.

On the slate are the Japanese economy, the yen, the Chinese renminbi, and the outlook for gold, with Paulo suggesting that Japan may have a longer road ahead in terms of fighting external pressures and that the BoJ may be able to turn the tide on the yen in the near- to medium-term.

We also discusses the possibility of China allowing the renminbi to appreciate rather than devalue, the potential for a weaker dollar to drive the rest of the world’s economies and why Paulo thinks gold is acting more like a currency that may continue to strengthen against other fiat.

Finally, Paulo explains why he believes the trading environment is set to become more challenging and that experienced traders will need to be more selective in their strategies.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 48 – Gerard Minack

Joining Bill Fleckenstein and me once again is our favourite Aussie-based analyst, Gerard Minack, who returns to The End Game to discuss various topics including Japan’s economy and market, US fiscal and monetary policy, central bank independence, gold, and the US dollar.

Gerard shares his views on Japan, explaining that while he believes the Japanese equity market is worth being bullish about, he’s not quite as optimistic about the country’s economy. He also addresses the issue of everybody’s favourite issue – Japan’s public sector debt, which Gerard believes is often exaggerated and that the crucial figure to understand -net debt – is actually much lower.

We also zero in on the importance of wage growth in Japan and its impact on inflation before pivoting to discuss the broader global markets, where he sees a major gap between market expectations and actual economic conditions. Gerard believes the market is far too optimistic about earnings growth and that there is a risk of a correction in the near future. 

Other topics under discussion include the US dollar and the recent movements in gold and copper prices.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 47 – The Two Mikes

Returning to The End Game as we begin the year with a bang are the brains behind Simplify, The Two Mikes, Green & Taylor who take turns picking apart just about ever facet of the financial and political spectrum. From the growth of passive investing and its potential impact on the market to the importance of […] This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 46 – James Aitken

Returning to The End Game is The Lord of the Dark Matter himself, James Aitken. Among the topics under discussion is the (under appreciated) potential for a normalization cycle by the Bank of Japan. James suggests the BOJ may attempt a policy rate normalization due to structural reforms and the need to revitalize the equity […] This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 45 – Kris Sidial

Joining us for this episode of The End Game is Kris Sidial, Co-Chief Investment Officer of The Ambrus Group, a tail-risk manager specializing in volatility strategies. Kris and his team seek to offer investors tail-risk protection without the associated ‘bleed’ in premium during times of dampened volatility so, with September fast-approaching, we thought it was a perfect time to chat with him as markets prepare to wake from their traditional summer slumbers.

Kris’ thoughts about what to expect as we move towards the back end of 2023 are incredibly interesting, with his expected scenario for the rest of this year having the potential to create quite the stir in markets lulled to sleep by the constant downward pressure on vol over recent years.

Buckle up, folks!

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 44 – Mike Green

Returning to the End Game for a long-overdue catch-up is the brilliant Mike Green of Simplify Asset management, who brings us up to date on the effect passive investing is having on asset markets and how they are skewing things in ways yet-to-be fully understood by the vast majority of market participants.

Mike offers his thoughts on the blunders made by the Federal Reserve, the odds that the market may hit a dangerous air pocket and the state of the US economy and does so with his customary verve.

This conversation was recorded the day before last week’s debt ceiling resolution.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 43 – Steve Eisman

Bill and Grant return for a no-holds-barred conversation with the great Steve Eisman of The Eisman Group within Neuberger Berman. Steve is no stranger, thanks both to his exploits during the GFC and the stupendous portrayal OF those exploits by Steve Carell in the movie version of Michael Lewis’ wonderful book, The Big Short.

Steve explains the history of paradigm shifts and tells us why he feels we are at the point of another major change, not only in the investment landscape but also in broader society.

The recent meltdown in the mid-size banking sector comes under the microscope, as do Fed policy, lofty valuations, a likely return to a more familiar investment world, the tech reckoning and the purveyor of a certain set of ETFs focused on ‘exponential growth’ stocks.

Fun for all the family!

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 42 – Michael Kao

With the financial world in turmoil once again and The End Game seemingly under way, we welcome Michael Kao back to the podcast to share his thinking around what the recent events in the banking sector (and the response of regulators) portends for the future.

Michael explains how he views the Fed’s toolkit and what he feels they’re likely to do with the ever-decreasing options at their disposal, what this latest fiasco means for the rest of the global banking fraternity and the US dollar as well as the likely knock-on effects for China.

This is yet another fascinating step on our journey to uncover The End Game.

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 41 – Mike Taylor

The latest guest to grace The End Game is Mike Taylor, manager of PINK, a healthcare ETF from the Simplify stable, the profits and fees associated with which go to the Susan Coleman Foundation for breast cancer. In a hugely spirited discussion, Mike pulls no punches as he takes apart the current landscape, assesses the […] This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 40 – Cem Karsan

On this episode of The End Game, we welcome Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors to the podcast as we take a look at the dramatic changes taking place in the world of volatility – an asset class which has been artificially dampened for many years but which is now beginning to spring back to life.

Cem is our guide as we ponder what this means and examine the constraints the inflation places upon central banks desperate to maintain a low vol environment for as long as they possibly can.

Part history lesson, part math lesson, part explainer, this conversation has so much in it for those looking to understand the new world in which we find ourselves through the prism of volatility…

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 39 – David Einhorn

The latest guest to grace The End Game series is hedge fund legend, value investor, ‘reformed’ shortseller and poker wizard, David Einhorn. In a greatly anticipated conversation, Bill and I get the chance to quiz David about his recent comments on the death of value investing, the challenges posed by investing in a bear market […] This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »