Kaos Theory

Kaos Theory Ep 6 – Brian McCarthy

Joining Michael Kao and me for the latest episode of Kaos Theory is Brian McCarthy, Chief Strategist of Emerging Sovereign Group and author of MacroLens research. Brian is a long-time China investor, having been involved with the Middle Kingdom since 2011.

In a fascinating conversation, Brian discusses various aspects of the Chinese economy and its intersection with global markets, highlighting the challenges China faces in managing its currency and the potential impact on global markets.

Brian explains that China has been managing its exchange rate by limiting the supply of dollars in the market, rather than intervening directly, and discusses the issue of capital flight from China and the porous nature of China’s capital controls.

Brian believes China’s reserves are not as large as some suggest and that the country is facing a debt deflation scenario and suggests that the Chinese government may struggle to let the RMB weaken significantly due to political and economic considerations.

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 5 – Robert Spalding

Joining us for the latest edition of Kaos Theory is Retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding, who discusses with us the need for the US to understand and counter China’s information warfare tactics. General Spalding emphasizes the importance of the information aspect of national power and how China is winning the battle on this front, highlights the need for the US to use tools and strategies that lead to less military force and more thinking in achieving desired outcomes, and also discusses the vulnerabilities of the US’s highly centralized infrastructure and the need for a more resilient and secure network architecture.

General Spalding shares his efforts to educate America through his book and his company, Semper Ai, which aims to create a decentralized infrastructure to protect communities and ensure continuity of operations. Also under the microscope is the importance of critical thinking, dissent, and protecting individual rights.

This episode is what we Brits would call a ‘real rip-snorter.’ Enjoy!

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Kaos Theory Ep 4 – Elbridge Colby

Joining Mike Kao and me for the fourth episode of Kaos Theory is Elbridge Colby, author of ‘The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,’ and the Founder of The Marathon Initiative, a non-profit research organization dedicated to developing the diplomatic, military, and economic strategies the United States will need to navigate a protracted competition with great power rivals.

In a hugely thought-provking conversation, we explore the concept of great power competition and the need for a shift in focus towards China, the importance of understanding the geopolitical and military dimensions of the China challenge (particularly in relation to Taiwan), and the concept of asymmetric strategy, using China’s economic weight against them.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

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Kaos Theory Ep 3 – Scott Smitson

Joining Michael Kao and me for episode three of Kaos Theory is Scott Smitson, Geopolitical Risk Consultant and former Strategy Branch Chief of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). Scott served twenty-one years on active duty in both combat arms and as an Army Strategist, reporting to the highest levels of the US military. He also spent three years as an Assistant Professor at the United States Military Academy.

Scott’s extensive experience makes him the perfect guest with whom to discuss the evolving alliance structures in the Indo-Pacific region, how the great powers are positioning assets ahead of any possible future conflict, the critical role of India, tensions over Taiwan and the growing unease among the BRICS countries.

With so many pieces in motion on the geopolitical chessboard right now, this conversation is filled with hard-won insight and critical evaluation, making it an excellent addition to our two previous conversations.

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Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 2 – Richard Lacquement

Joining Mike Kao and me for the second episode of Kaos Theory is Richard Lacquement, a man whose distinguished military and academic careers make him the perfect person to help us continue our exploration of the nexus between geopolitics, finance and the strategic military decision makers who are becoming more and more important when trying to assess how our future may unfold.

In this gripping conversation, we explore the DIME framework (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) to gain a better understanding of how military planners are adapting to the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape, ponder the two very different frameworks for warfare espoused by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu and dissect the differing approaches of the US and China to escalating conflict.

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Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 1 – Welcome To Kaos Theory

This is the first in a new limited series of conversations about an increasingly chaotic world as seen through the lens of Michael Kao – The Urban Kaoboy – in an attempt to bring order to a disorderly world.

America has tremendous natural advantages in terms of geography, natural resources, a USD-based global reserve currency, and a democratic system of governance and rule of law that has encouraged unprecedented innovation, freedom, and opportunity. However, America’s Unipolar moment in the sun is being threatened like never before – economically, militarily, and technologically.

Whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic about America’s future, what is unequivocal is that the Post Cold-War Globalization nirvana is over as we know it. As a result, the world is becoming more fractious and disorderly. Economic decisions can no longer be made without considering geopolitical repercussions; similarly, geopolitical decisions and motivations can dominate economic outcomes.

The purpose of this this podcast is to explore the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics – two areas that can no longer be analyzed in their respective vacuums. Join us as we bring on guests from multidisciplinary fields as we explore this crucial topic. Our aim is not just to educate and entertain but to also encourage cross-fertilization of ideas amongst our leaders and policymakers to help all of us navigate uncharted waters.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory

Kaos Theory Ep 6 – Brian McCarthy

Joining Michael Kao and me for the latest episode of Kaos Theory is Brian McCarthy, Chief Strategist of Emerging Sovereign Group and author of MacroLens research. Brian is a long-time China investor, having been involved with the Middle Kingdom since 2011.

In a fascinating conversation, Brian discusses various aspects of the Chinese economy and its intersection with global markets, highlighting the challenges China faces in managing its currency and the potential impact on global markets.

Brian explains that China has been managing its exchange rate by limiting the supply of dollars in the market, rather than intervening directly, and discusses the issue of capital flight from China and the porous nature of China’s capital controls.

Brian believes China’s reserves are not as large as some suggest and that the country is facing a debt deflation scenario and suggests that the Chinese government may struggle to let the RMB weaken significantly due to political and economic considerations.

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 5 – Robert Spalding

Joining us for the latest edition of Kaos Theory is Retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding, who discusses with us the need for the US to understand and counter China’s information warfare tactics. General Spalding emphasizes the importance of the information aspect of national power and how China is winning the battle on this front, highlights the need for the US to use tools and strategies that lead to less military force and more thinking in achieving desired outcomes, and also discusses the vulnerabilities of the US’s highly centralized infrastructure and the need for a more resilient and secure network architecture.

General Spalding shares his efforts to educate America through his book and his company, Semper Ai, which aims to create a decentralized infrastructure to protect communities and ensure continuity of operations. Also under the microscope is the importance of critical thinking, dissent, and protecting individual rights.

This episode is what we Brits would call a ‘real rip-snorter.’ Enjoy!

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 4 – Elbridge Colby

Joining Mike Kao and me for the fourth episode of Kaos Theory is Elbridge Colby, author of ‘The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,’ and the Founder of The Marathon Initiative, a non-profit research organization dedicated to developing the diplomatic, military, and economic strategies the United States will need to navigate a protracted competition with great power rivals.

In a hugely thought-provking conversation, we explore the concept of great power competition and the need for a shift in focus towards China, the importance of understanding the geopolitical and military dimensions of the China challenge (particularly in relation to Taiwan), and the concept of asymmetric strategy, using China’s economic weight against them.

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 3 – Scott Smitson

Joining Michael Kao and me for episode three of Kaos Theory is Scott Smitson, Geopolitical Risk Consultant and former Strategy Branch Chief of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). Scott served twenty-one years on active duty in both combat arms and as an Army Strategist, reporting to the highest levels of the US military. He also spent three years as an Assistant Professor at the United States Military Academy.

Scott’s extensive experience makes him the perfect guest with whom to discuss the evolving alliance structures in the Indo-Pacific region, how the great powers are positioning assets ahead of any possible future conflict, the critical role of India, tensions over Taiwan and the growing unease among the BRICS countries.

With so many pieces in motion on the geopolitical chessboard right now, this conversation is filled with hard-won insight and critical evaluation, making it an excellent addition to our two previous conversations.

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 2 – Richard Lacquement

Joining Mike Kao and me for the second episode of Kaos Theory is Richard Lacquement, a man whose distinguished military and academic careers make him the perfect person to help us continue our exploration of the nexus between geopolitics, finance and the strategic military decision makers who are becoming more and more important when trying to assess how our future may unfold.

In this gripping conversation, we explore the DIME framework (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic) to gain a better understanding of how military planners are adapting to the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape, ponder the two very different frameworks for warfare espoused by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu and dissect the differing approaches of the US and China to escalating conflict.

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 1 – Welcome To Kaos Theory

This is the first in a new limited series of conversations about an increasingly chaotic world as seen through the lens of Michael Kao – The Urban Kaoboy – in an attempt to bring order to a disorderly world.

America has tremendous natural advantages in terms of geography, natural resources, a USD-based global reserve currency, and a democratic system of governance and rule of law that has encouraged unprecedented innovation, freedom, and opportunity. However, America’s Unipolar moment in the sun is being threatened like never before – economically, militarily, and technologically.

Whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic about America’s future, what is unequivocal is that the Post Cold-War Globalization nirvana is over as we know it. As a result, the world is becoming more fractious and disorderly. Economic decisions can no longer be made without considering geopolitical repercussions; similarly, geopolitical decisions and motivations can dominate economic outcomes.

The purpose of this this podcast is to explore the intersection of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics – two areas that can no longer be analyzed in their respective vacuums. Join us as we bring on guests from multidisciplinary fields as we explore this crucial topic. Our aim is not just to educate and entertain but to also encourage cross-fertilization of ideas amongst our leaders and policymakers to help all of us navigate uncharted waters.

Listen Now »