On this episode of KAOS Theory, Michael Kao and I welcome Lakshmi Sreekumar for her first major appearance since leaving Capital One and a fascinating deep dive into an oil market that has stubbornly refused to behave the way many expected. Drawing on her background in energy trading, derivatives and macro analysis—as well as her experience advising the Dallas Fed’s Energy Advisory Council—Lakshmi explains why understanding oil requires far more than simply counting barrels. At the heart of the conversation is the Strait of Hormuz, which she argues is neither truly open nor closed, but rather operating as a “sieve”, with the impact of disruption being absorbed through a combination of demand destruction, bypass routes, partial transit and inventory draws. From there, we explore Iran’s ambitions in the Strait, the role of the IRGC, China’s striking decline in oil demand and why some of that shift may be permanent rather than cyclical. Lakshmi also walks us through several possible paths for the conflict and explains why her base case is a prolonged “staring contest” designed to squeeze the IRGC financially—keeping oil prices elevated for now, while potentially setting the stage for a very different supply-demand picture, and even a global oil surplus, by 2028.

In the latest episode of KAOS Theory, Michael Kao and I welcome Michael Every back to the show for a wide-ranging discussion on the latest confrontation with Iran and what it reveals about the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Moving well beyond the daily headlines, our conversation examines the strategic calculations of the United States, Iran, Israel, and China, and explores why the assumptions underpinning the post-Cold War order continue to unravel. Along the way, Michael explains why today’s conflicts are increasingly fought through economic leverage, supply chains, and energy infrastructure rather than simply military force, while Michael Kao and I probe the implications for markets, investors, and policymakers as the global balance of power continues to shift.

In this episode of Kaos Theory, Michael Kao joins me as we welcome energy expert Meredith Angwin for a deeply revealing discussion about how America’s electricity system became both more expensive and more fragile. Meredith explains why utility deregulation—so successful in industries like airlines and telecom—produced the opposite outcome in electricity, shifting responsibility away from […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

In the latest episode of Kaos Theory, Michael and I welcome back historian Barry Strauss for a sweeping conversation that bridges ancient history and modern geopolitics. Drawing on his new book, Jews vs Rome, Barry explores how Israel’s struggle to survive between rival powers mirrors ancient Judea’s perilous position between Rome and Parthia, and why […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

In the latest episode of Kaos Theory, Michael Kao and I are joined by Kim Ghattas, author of Black Wave, for a deep dive into multiple points of conflict in the Middle East, the transformative year of 1979 and its lasting impact on the region. Speaking from Beirut, Kim examines how three seemingly unrelated events—the […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

Joining Michael Kao and me for this episode of Kaos Theory is Rabobank’s Michael Every as we chronicle the decline of the post-war liberal order and the rise of economic statecraft as the new paradigm in global affairs.  We trace the historical context of previous such orders – Pax Britannica and Pax Americana – and […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

Historian and author Barry Strauss joins Michael Kao and me for an absolutely fascinating discussion in which he provides a series of insights into the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, as we draw parallels to the world around us today. Barry discusses the factors behind Rome’s longevity, including its flexible, pragmatic political system […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

In episode seven of Kaos Theory Grant and Michael welcome author, political scientist, China expert and US Air Force Reservist, Oriana Skylar Mastro for an informed and remarkably even-handed discussion on China. Oriana’s latest book, “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power,” explains how China’s rise draws from the business world to show that China […] Please consider upgrading to a Copper or Silver Tier Subscription in order to access this content.

Joining Michael Kao and me for the latest episode of Kaos Theory is Brian McCarthy, Chief Strategist of Emerging Sovereign Group and author of MacroLens research. Brian is a long-time China investor, having been involved with the Middle Kingdom since 2011.

In a fascinating conversation, Brian discusses various aspects of the Chinese economy and its intersection with global markets, highlighting the challenges China faces in managing its currency and the potential impact on global markets.

Brian explains that China has been managing its exchange rate by limiting the supply of dollars in the market, rather than intervening directly, and discusses the issue of capital flight from China and the porous nature of China’s capital controls.

Brian believes China’s reserves are not as large as some suggest and that the country is facing a debt deflation scenario and suggests that the Chinese government may struggle to let the RMB weaken significantly due to political and economic considerations.

Joining us for the latest edition of Kaos Theory is Retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding, who discusses with us the need for the US to understand and counter China’s information warfare tactics. General Spalding emphasizes the importance of the information aspect of national power and how China is winning the battle on this front, highlights the need for the US to use tools and strategies that lead to less military force and more thinking in achieving desired outcomes, and also discusses the vulnerabilities of the US’s highly centralized infrastructure and the need for a more resilient and secure network architecture.

General Spalding shares his efforts to educate America through his book and his company, Semper Ai, which aims to create a decentralized infrastructure to protect communities and ensure continuity of operations. Also under the microscope is the importance of critical thinking, dissent, and protecting individual rights.

This episode is what we Brits would call a ‘real rip-snorter.’ Enjoy!

Joining Mike Kao and me for the fourth episode of Kaos Theory is Elbridge Colby, author of ‘The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,’ and the Founder of The Marathon Initiative, a non-profit research organization dedicated to developing the diplomatic, military, and economic strategies the United States will need to navigate a protracted competition with great power rivals.

In a hugely thought-provking conversation, we explore the concept of great power competition and the need for a shift in focus towards China, the importance of understanding the geopolitical and military dimensions of the China challenge (particularly in relation to Taiwan), and the concept of asymmetric strategy, using China’s economic weight against them.

Joining Michael Kao and me for episode three of Kaos Theory is Scott Smitson, Geopolitical Risk Consultant and former Strategy Branch Chief of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). Scott served twenty-one years on active duty in both combat arms and as an Army Strategist, reporting to the highest levels of the US military. He also spent three years as an Assistant Professor at the United States Military Academy.

Scott’s extensive experience makes him the perfect guest with whom to discuss the evolving alliance structures in the Indo-Pacific region, how the great powers are positioning assets ahead of any possible future conflict, the critical role of India, tensions over Taiwan and the growing unease among the BRICS countries.

With so many pieces in motion on the geopolitical chessboard right now, this conversation is filled with hard-won insight and critical evaluation, making it an excellent addition to our two previous conversations.