The Grant Williams Podcast

The End Game Ep 48 – Gerard Minack

Joining Bill Fleckenstein and me once again is our favourite Aussie-based analyst, Gerard Minack, who returns to The End Game to discuss various topics including Japan’s economy and market, US fiscal and monetary policy, central bank independence, gold, and the US dollar.

Gerard shares his views on Japan, explaining that while he believes the Japanese equity market is worth being bullish about, he’s not quite as optimistic about the country’s economy. He also addresses the issue of everybody’s favourite issue – Japan’s public sector debt, which Gerard believes is often exaggerated and that the crucial figure to understand -net debt – is actually much lower.

We also zero in on the importance of wage growth in Japan and its impact on inflation before pivoting to discuss the broader global markets, where he sees a major gap between market expectations and actual economic conditions. Gerard believes the market is far too optimistic about earnings growth and that there is a risk of a correction in the near future. 

Other topics under discussion include the US dollar and the recent movements in gold and copper prices.

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Travis Kling

My guest on this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is Travis Kling of Ikigai Asset Management, who joins me to explore a concept gaining increasing traction in today’s market environment – financial nihilism.

Along the way, we also discuss the delicate balance between keeping interest rates low and inflating our way out of debt, the challenges faced by central banks in managing monetary policy to support economic growth while preventing excessive inflation and the potential impact of technological innovation on inflation as well as the possibility of a great wealth transfer from older generations to younger ones.

Of course, we couldn’t end without a discussion around the role of cryptocurrencies in this changing economic landscape, so there’s that as well…

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Super Terrific Happy Hour Ep. 22: Let’s Give Them Something To Talk About

Steph and Grant return to discuss allllll kinds of stuff including (but not limited to) private credit, the Fed’s balance sheet (I know, I know) inflation and the reality around the market’s curious reliance upon rate cuts.

There’s also an announcement. An announcement, I tell ya. You wanna piece of us? Here’s your chance…

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The Grant Williams Podcast: Brent Johnson

Joining me on this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast is my great friend Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, for a discussion about global markets and, of course, The Milkshake Theory.

Brent explains how he uses the Theory as a framework to help him understand how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out and how, though he’s been uncertain about markets recently, this framework has helped him navigate the volatility.

Brent emphasizes the importance of remaining objective and questioning one’s own beliefs, as well as the need to be prepared for drawdowns in asset prices as we discusses the extraordinary bull market in certainty and the importance of diversification.

There’s also time for a look at the current political situation in the US and its potential impact on the markets with Brent arguing that, while the US may be facing political and economic turmoil, the rest of the world still relies heavily on the US dollar, and a divided US would be a disaster for the global economy.

Something for everyone in here…

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The Grant Williams Podcast: Michael Howell – 2024

Returning to the podcast this time out is Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, and what a return it is as we discuss the continuing (some would say escalating) importance of liquidity in global markets.

Michael explains how central banks have been the main source of liquidity since the 2008 financial crisis, with their primary goal being to preserve the integrity of sovereign debt markets and ensure a smooth refinancing environment for some $350 trillion of debt.

He also highlights the British gilt crisis in September 2022 as a wake-up call for policymakers, signaling that markets are no longer robust and are, in fact, remarkably fragile. We also discuss how the path of least resistance for central banks is to continue kicking the can down the road and monetize the deficit, leading to higher structural inflation rates.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Remi Tetot

Remi Tetot, the man behind The Mad King, joins me for a discussion around three of his most recent pieces of research.

We discuss Remi’s observations around the Bitcoin ETFs and his views on the current up-cycle in crypto before switching to the growth potential of India, during which we discover a fascinating opportunity as India’s GDP expands with inevitable consequences for its defence sector.

Finally, we switch our attention to the Magnificent 7… sorry, Magnificent 6, as Remi picks apart the fascination with NVIDIA, AI and data centres, drawing parallels to the broadband ‘revolution’ of the late-1990s.

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Listen Now »

This Week In Doom – #18: Something For Everyone

Join Doomberg and I as we discuss several topics sure to stir even the most languid of blood including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the changing nature of warfare with the rise of drone technology, and the concept of peak cheap oil.

Doomberg’s argument that peak cheap oil is a fallacy and that human ingenuity will always find ways to extract and produce more hydrocarbons has garnered plenty of attention (and pushback) in recent weeks so here’s another chance to understand why and to hear about the backlash they received for their views on the matter. Finally, just when you think we’ve run out of controversial subjects, the conversation turns to an upcoming piece on the assault on climate denialism and the labeling of certain views as hate speech…

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

Shifts Happen – Episode Seven

A long-overdue episode seven of Shifts Happen sees Luke Gromen return to discuss the pace at which three things are happening: the acceleration of the US fiscal crisis and debt spiral, the Fed’s policy mistake of not letting inflation run hot enough, and the de-dollarization of global oil markets.

Luke explains that China needs to de-dollarize its oil imports and commodity imports to avoid a currency crisis, which is driving the de-dollarization of global oil markets and also highlights the importance of gold in this process, as China needs gold to work in order to improve its standards of living and avoid a crisis.

Luke believes gold will continue to rise in price, and that the pace of events is accelerating towards a US fiscal crisis. He explains the US is facing a fiscal crisis due to its high debt and deficits, and the lack of price-sensitive buyers for its treasuries and that the Fed’s choice is not inflation or deflation, but rather how it wants to lose the long end of the yield curve

Plenty of food for thought here with Luke on fine form.

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Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Julian Brigden 2024

As we ease our way into 2024, I’m delighted to welcome back my great mate,Julian Brigden to the podcast. Julian is the co-founder of independent research firm MI2 Partners and, as he’s demonstrated in previous conversations, a hugely insightful and incredibly entertaining guest!

This time out, he and I discuss, amongst other things, the Goldilocks narrative, the potential risks in the current market environment, the performance of Tesla stock, the Chinese stock market, and the outlook for gold. Julian expresses his skepticism around threading the Goldilocks needle and highlights the historical challenges of achieving a soft landing in the US economy.

He also shares his concerns about the future of Tesla and the Chinese stock market and offers some thoughts on gold, which he believes is in a structural bull market, but…

Here we go…

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Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 5 – Robert Spalding

Joining us for the latest edition of Kaos Theory is Retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding, who discusses with us the need for the US to understand and counter China’s information warfare tactics. General Spalding emphasizes the importance of the information aspect of national power and how China is winning the battle on this front, highlights the need for the US to use tools and strategies that lead to less military force and more thinking in achieving desired outcomes, and also discusses the vulnerabilities of the US’s highly centralized infrastructure and the need for a more resilient and secure network architecture.

General Spalding shares his efforts to educate America through his book and his company, Semper Ai, which aims to create a decentralized infrastructure to protect communities and ensure continuity of operations. Also under the microscope is the importance of critical thinking, dissent, and protecting individual rights.

This episode is what we Brits would call a ‘real rip-snorter.’ Enjoy!

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 47 – The Two Mikes

Returning to The End Game as we begin the year with a bang are the brains behind Simplify, The Two Mikes, Green & Taylor who take turns picking apart just about ever facet of the financial and political spectrum. From the growth of passive investing and its potential impact on the market to the importance of […]

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Michael Oliver 2023

Joining me for the final episode of The Grant Williams Podcast in 2023 is returning guest, Michael Oliver, the brains behind Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) – one of the most original and, in my experience, accurate forecasters of asset prices right across the spectrum.

In a hugely enjoyable conversation, we discuss the current state of the markets and what to expect in 2024. Michael explains his unique approach to technical analysis, which focuses on momentum rather than price, and emphasizes the importance of looking at long-term trend structures and how they can provide a different perspective on market patterns.

Also under the microscope are the potential impact of the upcoming US elections and the increasing division in the country. Michael explains why he believes that there is no outcome of the election that will be peaceful and that this could have significant implications for the markets.

Lastly, he also highlights the potential for a rally in gold and commodity-related stocks. Whichever way you cut it, Michael’s analysis suggests that investors should be cautious in the face of potential market volatility in the coming year.

This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast

The End Game Ep 48 – Gerard Minack

Joining Bill Fleckenstein and me once again is our favourite Aussie-based analyst, Gerard Minack, who returns to The End Game to discuss various topics including Japan’s economy and market, US fiscal and monetary policy, central bank independence, gold, and the US dollar.

Gerard shares his views on Japan, explaining that while he believes the Japanese equity market is worth being bullish about, he’s not quite as optimistic about the country’s economy. He also addresses the issue of everybody’s favourite issue – Japan’s public sector debt, which Gerard believes is often exaggerated and that the crucial figure to understand -net debt – is actually much lower.

We also zero in on the importance of wage growth in Japan and its impact on inflation before pivoting to discuss the broader global markets, where he sees a major gap between market expectations and actual economic conditions. Gerard believes the market is far too optimistic about earnings growth and that there is a risk of a correction in the near future. 

Other topics under discussion include the US dollar and the recent movements in gold and copper prices.

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Travis Kling

My guest on this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is Travis Kling of Ikigai Asset Management, who joins me to explore a concept gaining increasing traction in today’s market environment – financial nihilism.

Along the way, we also discuss the delicate balance between keeping interest rates low and inflating our way out of debt, the challenges faced by central banks in managing monetary policy to support economic growth while preventing excessive inflation and the potential impact of technological innovation on inflation as well as the possibility of a great wealth transfer from older generations to younger ones.

Of course, we couldn’t end without a discussion around the role of cryptocurrencies in this changing economic landscape, so there’s that as well…

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Brent Johnson

Joining me on this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast is my great friend Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital, for a discussion about global markets and, of course, The Milkshake Theory.

Brent explains how he uses the Theory as a framework to help him understand how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out and how, though he’s been uncertain about markets recently, this framework has helped him navigate the volatility.

Brent emphasizes the importance of remaining objective and questioning one’s own beliefs, as well as the need to be prepared for drawdowns in asset prices as we discusses the extraordinary bull market in certainty and the importance of diversification.

There’s also time for a look at the current political situation in the US and its potential impact on the markets with Brent arguing that, while the US may be facing political and economic turmoil, the rest of the world still relies heavily on the US dollar, and a divided US would be a disaster for the global economy.

Something for everyone in here…

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Michael Howell – 2024

Returning to the podcast this time out is Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, and what a return it is as we discuss the continuing (some would say escalating) importance of liquidity in global markets.

Michael explains how central banks have been the main source of liquidity since the 2008 financial crisis, with their primary goal being to preserve the integrity of sovereign debt markets and ensure a smooth refinancing environment for some $350 trillion of debt.

He also highlights the British gilt crisis in September 2022 as a wake-up call for policymakers, signaling that markets are no longer robust and are, in fact, remarkably fragile. We also discuss how the path of least resistance for central banks is to continue kicking the can down the road and monetize the deficit, leading to higher structural inflation rates.

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Remi Tetot

Remi Tetot, the man behind The Mad King, joins me for a discussion around three of his most recent pieces of research.

We discuss Remi’s observations around the Bitcoin ETFs and his views on the current up-cycle in crypto before switching to the growth potential of India, during which we discover a fascinating opportunity as India’s GDP expands with inevitable consequences for its defence sector.

Finally, we switch our attention to the Magnificent 7… sorry, Magnificent 6, as Remi picks apart the fascination with NVIDIA, AI and data centres, drawing parallels to the broadband ‘revolution’ of the late-1990s.

Listen Now »

This Week In Doom – #18: Something For Everyone

Join Doomberg and I as we discuss several topics sure to stir even the most languid of blood including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the changing nature of warfare with the rise of drone technology, and the concept of peak cheap oil.

Doomberg’s argument that peak cheap oil is a fallacy and that human ingenuity will always find ways to extract and produce more hydrocarbons has garnered plenty of attention (and pushback) in recent weeks so here’s another chance to understand why and to hear about the backlash they received for their views on the matter. Finally, just when you think we’ve run out of controversial subjects, the conversation turns to an upcoming piece on the assault on climate denialism and the labeling of certain views as hate speech…

Listen Now »

Shifts Happen – Episode Seven

A long-overdue episode seven of Shifts Happen sees Luke Gromen return to discuss the pace at which three things are happening: the acceleration of the US fiscal crisis and debt spiral, the Fed’s policy mistake of not letting inflation run hot enough, and the de-dollarization of global oil markets.

Luke explains that China needs to de-dollarize its oil imports and commodity imports to avoid a currency crisis, which is driving the de-dollarization of global oil markets and also highlights the importance of gold in this process, as China needs gold to work in order to improve its standards of living and avoid a crisis.

Luke believes gold will continue to rise in price, and that the pace of events is accelerating towards a US fiscal crisis. He explains the US is facing a fiscal crisis due to its high debt and deficits, and the lack of price-sensitive buyers for its treasuries and that the Fed’s choice is not inflation or deflation, but rather how it wants to lose the long end of the yield curve

Plenty of food for thought here with Luke on fine form.

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Julian Brigden 2024

As we ease our way into 2024, I’m delighted to welcome back my great mate,Julian Brigden to the podcast. Julian is the co-founder of independent research firm MI2 Partners and, as he’s demonstrated in previous conversations, a hugely insightful and incredibly entertaining guest!

This time out, he and I discuss, amongst other things, the Goldilocks narrative, the potential risks in the current market environment, the performance of Tesla stock, the Chinese stock market, and the outlook for gold. Julian expresses his skepticism around threading the Goldilocks needle and highlights the historical challenges of achieving a soft landing in the US economy.

He also shares his concerns about the future of Tesla and the Chinese stock market and offers some thoughts on gold, which he believes is in a structural bull market, but…

Here we go…

Listen Now »

Kaos Theory Ep 5 – Robert Spalding

Joining us for the latest edition of Kaos Theory is Retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding, who discusses with us the need for the US to understand and counter China’s information warfare tactics. General Spalding emphasizes the importance of the information aspect of national power and how China is winning the battle on this front, highlights the need for the US to use tools and strategies that lead to less military force and more thinking in achieving desired outcomes, and also discusses the vulnerabilities of the US’s highly centralized infrastructure and the need for a more resilient and secure network architecture.

General Spalding shares his efforts to educate America through his book and his company, Semper Ai, which aims to create a decentralized infrastructure to protect communities and ensure continuity of operations. Also under the microscope is the importance of critical thinking, dissent, and protecting individual rights.

This episode is what we Brits would call a ‘real rip-snorter.’ Enjoy!

Listen Now »

The End Game Ep 47 – The Two Mikes

Returning to The End Game as we begin the year with a bang are the brains behind Simplify, The Two Mikes, Green & Taylor who take turns picking apart just about ever facet of the financial and political spectrum. From the growth of passive investing and its potential impact on the market to the importance of […] This content is only available for active subscribers. Subscribe

Listen Now »

The Grant Williams Podcast: Michael Oliver 2023

Joining me for the final episode of The Grant Williams Podcast in 2023 is returning guest, Michael Oliver, the brains behind Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) – one of the most original and, in my experience, accurate forecasters of asset prices right across the spectrum.

In a hugely enjoyable conversation, we discuss the current state of the markets and what to expect in 2024. Michael explains his unique approach to technical analysis, which focuses on momentum rather than price, and emphasizes the importance of looking at long-term trend structures and how they can provide a different perspective on market patterns.

Also under the microscope are the potential impact of the upcoming US elections and the increasing division in the country. Michael explains why he believes that there is no outcome of the election that will be peaceful and that this could have significant implications for the markets.

Lastly, he also highlights the potential for a rally in gold and commodity-related stocks. Whichever way you cut it, Michael’s analysis suggests that investors should be cautious in the face of potential market volatility in the coming year.

Listen Now »